It's not necessarily the boldest prediction to say the Braves will, again, win the NL East. Despite it only being June, I'm fairly confident in their ability to do just that. When the Phillies, Marlins, and Mets do manage to scrape together a few wins to make up ground, the Braves answer with a winning series of their own to keep their distance in the standings.
But this isn't about who will win the NL East. It's about the bigger picture: October Baseball. It's where the Braves belong, though they don't always prove it when they're there. From the years 2000 to 2019, the Braves appeared in ten National League Division Series. They won one of those in 2002. The lack of Postseason results, despite being maddening, was actually quite impressive. They just couldn't push through in October.
The 2023 Braves, much like the World Series Champion Braves of 2021, are a different breed of ball club, and we love to see it. So, as we near the halfway point of the 2023 season, let's take a look at five reasons this totally unbiased and absolutely rational Braves' fan thinks the boys in Atlanta will win it all again.
1. Ronald Acuña Jr.
Where the Braves have all but run away with the division, Ronald Acuña Jr. has all but accepted his first National League MVP award. I've been religiously watching Major League Baseball since the early nineties, and I have never seen a player like Ronald Acuña Jr.
Ever.
The man is a baseball god. I personally feel he is already one of the greatest players to ever play the game. He's the first player in the modern era to collect at least 15 home runs and 30 steals within the first 70 games of a season. That puts him on pace for 33 homers and 67 steals in 2023. I think the elusive 40-40 club is on his mind, and it may be an even bigger personal goal than winning MVP (which he'd take home with a 40-40 campaign). He currently leads the league in runs and sits comfortably in the top ten of all offensive categories.
The five-tool phenom does something every night on the diamond that shows just how elite of a player he truly is. After suffering a season-ending knee injury in 2021, Acuña showed some apprehension in his movements when he returned to play last year. Not anymore. He's healthy and thriving, and in 2023, Ronald has made several stellar plays against the right-field wall that he'd have taken on a ricochet last season. His spectacular arm still keeps runners weary of tagging up on fly balls to right field.
I mean, there's just nothing Acuña can't do on a baseball field, and we're lucky to get to watch him play each night. But is he really one of the all-time greats? In my lifetime, it's about as close to an objective fact as you can get. I think he's the best player currently on an MLB roster. People will say Shohei Ohtani is better because he can pitch. To that, I'd say, "Maybe. Shohei Ohtani is also one of the greatest to ever play the game, but you're insane if you believe that Ronald Acuña Jr. couldn't also pitch if he wanted."
"Yeah, but he doesn't."
Right, he plays Hall-of-Fame-level defense and steals bases instead. But he could pitch and there would be no convincing me that a man with that amount of natural talent, baseball intelligence, and that heat-seeking rocket launcher he carries around as a right arm couldn't develop a few pitches and compete at the highest level. I'm convinced the man can do anything he wants. If you've seen him play in person, you know that.
Years ago, before I'd ever even heard his name, I saw a teenage Acuña play a minor-league game when the Rome Braves came through Asheville. He was undeniably better than everyone else on the field. He still hadn't turned the heads of every prospect-projector in baseball, but he turned mine that night. He blazed around the bases with lightning speed. Can you believe he used to be even faster? I'll take the muscle, though. We've all heard the saying before, but the ball really did just sound different off his bat. I thought a few would disappear over the mountains behind McCormick Field. It wouldn't be long after that night that his name would start popping up on the pipeline pages and blogs. The rest is history.
As long as Acuña stays healthy, I don't see anyone stopping him. And if he rubs off at all on his teammates, come October, they'll be an absolute force.
2. Young Guns & The Bullpen
No, that's not my new band name, though it's not bad.
This blog will never be stat-focused. I love stats, but it's an opinion-based blog (if you couldn't tell from the title of this entry), so I'll only use them when they help enforce my opinion. I just want to talk about things I see and the way I see them. And the way I see things is the Braves' pitching staff is ridiculous. From veteran Charlie Morton all the way down to the recovering premiere prospects of the past, Kyle Wright and Kolby Allard, the latter of whom just returned to the mound for his first rehab start since hitting the DL with an oblique strain back in early March. Allard tossed 4 shutout innings, giving up only a single hit to the Nashville Sounds.
Other notable young surprises come in the understated performances by Bryce Elder, who just last year became the first Braves' rookie to pitch a complete game shutout since 1990. He and current rookie, AJ Smith-Shawver, who continues to dazzle fans with his changeup—and at only twenty years old, he became the youngest Braves starting pitcher to earn a win in over thirty years.
The Braves' pitching staff has certainly impressed, especially considering it's been largely without the help of Kyle Wright and franchise ace, Max Fried, both still sidelined with nagging injuries. The two are projected to return to the rotation at some point this summer.
Currently, Spencer Strider has stepped up to the role of the Braves' ace, and despite some recent struggles, he's been more than a stud. However, he's a stud I feel might be destined for the bullpen—but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Remember, John Smoltz transitioned to the bullpen after coming back from Tommy John surgery, and he compiled over 150 saves over the next four seasons. One of the benefits of having an abundance of pitching is molding your staff to best position your team for success. As long as the rotation doesn't suffer, a bullpen containing Spencer Strider is nowhere near a bad thing.
Entering the 2023 season, I believed the Braves had one of the best bullpens in baseball, and despite what it might feel like, I still do. It hasn't been as lights out as I expected, but the team leads the National League in runs allowed, and that doesn't happen without a batch of solid relief arms on tap. I've learned to trust Alex Anthopoulos (and maybe one day I'll learn to trust Brian Snitker), and I know he'll do what he can to bolster the bullpen by the deadline.
Jesse Chavez has been my favorite arm out of the pen this season, so when he went down after taking a comebacker off the shin, I was a bit worried about where that would leave the state of the pen. Then, out of nowhere, Ben Heller comes up—after having not pitched in a Major League game in over 1,000 days, mind you—and dominates with 8 Ks over his first three innings of work in a Braves uniform. These are the stories I love to hear and write about, and it's another pleasant reminder that Alex Anthopoulos (and the entire Front Office) are bigger baseball minds than anyone you or I know—I do think I could handle an assistant's gig if you're ever reading this, Alex.
Overall, I'd say the bullpen has been respectable. It could be due to them not being put under a ton of pressure by the starting staff, for whom I can only relay my feelings in the form of a chef's kiss. They're doing less clean-up work and more preserving bigger leads. Though, there have been several instances that they've blown it. Raisel Iglesias gave up a ninth-inning lead in Toronto last month that really stung, but the team bounced back to take the next series from a solid Texas Rangers team.
More recently, and most importantly, AJ Minter has been resurgent, almost looking like the Minter of years past. He's given up just two hits and 1 ER over his last seven appearances, posting an impressive 0.47 WHIP in that time. While his season stats might be alarming, it's important to look at trends with players who have shown they have what it takes to bounce back.
It's never fun to blow a lead. It's an act that would destroy the confidence and drive in most offenses—but not these Atlanta Braves.
3. The Fight in Their Dog
The Comeback Kids. It's quite remarkable how this lineup digs in and claws their way back to win games most teams would have given up on long before the final out. And they do it consistently. I went back and looked at the scorecard from every win this season. In 72 games, there have been nine late-inning comebacks in which the Braves won after trailing going into the sixth inning. They just keep grinding and grinding, regardless of the score.
There was no better example of this than two weeks ago when the division rival New York Mets came to town. During the series, the Braves dangled three separate winning opportunities over the heads of the flailing Mets. The Mets squandered each lead, and the Braves came back to win all three games and sweep the Mets into fourth place. It was almost sadistic, the way the Braves were toying with them. It seemed like an intentional strategy just to fully deflate the spirit of the Mets (and Mets' Twitter). 10/10 would recommend again.
It's the fight in their dog. Even when they're down and seemingly out, they just never quit. That's the kind of play we've grown used to with this young roster.
The desire to win ball games shines through in their performance. It's not anything new. We saw it last year as they chased down the Mets to overcome a 10.5-game deficit and win the division for the fifth straight season.
There's something about the FAFO attitude of players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider, Eddie Rosario, Travis D'Arnaud, and Orlando Arcia that just resonates throughout the rest of the clubhouse and manifests in the form of some unforgettable come-from-behind wins.
Speaking of Orlando Arcia...
4. Orlando Arcia
How good has Orlando Arcia been? Well, only one of the best shortstops in baseball—on both sides of the ball. Another surprising chess move by Alex Anthopoulos, trading Dansby Swanson, while most were picking up their checkers after flipping the table in a rage.
Once the honeymoon phase ended with Dansby, I found myself often irrationally annoyed by him. I was never the biggest Dansby fan, but he was fine, I guess. He did possess an intangible core of values and loved community outreach, and I feel that has its place in every dugout, but his contract-season overperformance didn't really convince me. I'll never sympathize with a player who feels they were forced to leave over money. Oh, was the offer of $100M over six years not enough for you? And then to act like the city of Atlanta doesn't have one of the most supportive and active fanbases in all of sports? I hope the Cubs stay colder than the Chicago winters.
Remember when I said this blog isn't about stats? Well, let's compare the numbers:
First, let's stop acting like the Braves downgraded to some old, stopgap reincarnation of Erick Aybar. Orlando Arcia is more than a whole Major League service year younger than Dansby Swanson (174 days).
Now, I didn't really need the above table to know Orlando Arcia is an upgrade over Dansby Swanson (I've watched them both play this year), but it's still fun to explore. The first thing I notice is Dansby has had nearly 100 more AB. That skews things a bit—and not in his favor. However, Arcia's 179 AB is a large enough sample size for comparison, and well, he's just been objectively better in pretty much every offensive category. He's nearly caught Dansby in WAR, and in 94 fewer AB, Arcia has scored only two fewer runs than the former Brave.
What else stands out? Look at that last column. No, not the OPS+ (though, that says a lot). Look down at that salary difference. That's like a whole Ronald Acuña Jr. per year in savings. As long as the payroll doesn't decrease, that's a win all around for Braves fans. Even if Arcia falters, he's replaceable at little cost to the team. I feel we've seen enough to know he's probably going to be just fine as the everyday shortstop for the foreseeable future.
I am admittedly a bit biased toward the Braves, but it would be wrong to not bring up one almost unfair advantage Arcia has over Swanson in this debate. He's surrounded by—
5. The Best Lineup in Franchise History
To me, it's not even close, either. I have been watching Braves baseball for thirty years and I've never seen anything like this lineup. It's monstrous from top to bottom, more stacked than Kim Kardashian at a pancake buffet.
Not enough can be said about Acuña Jr., and ironically no words can describe just how good he is anyway. Every AB is a must-watch event. Every ball hit in his direction is a must-watch play. Every time he steps on the field, his almost mythical talent almost guarantees to provide entertainment.
Now that we're done with the nerd stuff, let's use our eyes. Who cares about Matt Olson's strikeout rate? Have you seen how he obliterates baseballs with people on base? Enough said. He's stoic and solid, much like Austin Riley. The quality of their character and demeanor is important in a clubhouse of vibrant personalities. Too much crazy and you've got a problem. It's a balanced culture of archetypes that just works so well. Most importantly in defense of Olson, as the Braves' first baseman, he's not going to bring obvious tension to the dugout every time another player pimps a home run or has fun on the field. Ahem...
When Michael Harris II was slumping hard for the first quarter of the season, I wasn't worried for a single second. He's a natural, much like Acuña, only not as legendary. For a minute there, he was hitting around his weight in AVG, but like me, he also didn't freak out (something from which many of you could learn).
Michael didn't take it out on those around him. He played good defense, put his head down, and fought back to a place where he's now slashing .404/.417/.684 over his last fifteen games and went 5-for-5 in the Sunday sweep of Colorado. Players are going to struggle, all of them, but it's refreshing to see such a deep lineup carry each other during those times. Alex Anthopoulos has meticulously structured the team to allow for individual struggle. Look at his catching situation. Keeping Travis D'Arnaud as a backup catcher who can fill in at DH? That's just smart baseballing, right? I tried to think of a test to prove how good this lineup is, and I decided to reorganize it to be as bad as I could possibly make it.
1. Matt Olson - 1B
2. Travis D'Arnaud - DH
3. Michael Harris II - CF
4. Eddie Rosario - LF
5. Ozzie Albies - 2B
6. Orlando Arcia - SS
7. Sean Murphy - C
8. Austin Riley - 3B
9. Ronald Acuña Jr. - RF
Do you know what that lineup still does?
That's right. It fucks.
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